Taiwan Strait Strategy & Analysis

Military scenarios, defense breakdowns, and geopolitical insights — backed by interactive simulation.

China's Blockade Option: The Strategy That Keeps Pentagon Planners Awake

A naval blockade or quarantine of Taiwan may be Beijing's most plausible coercive option — harder to deter than invasion, devastating in effect, and deeply challenging for the US and allies to counter. Taiwan imports 97% of its energy and 65% of its calories. The math is unforgiving.

China's Type 095 Submarine Has Arrived: What Satellite Images Reveal About the Undersea Balance

Satellite imagery has confirmed China's next-generation Type 095 nuclear attack submarine fitting out at Bohai Shipyard. With X-tail rudders, pump-jet propulsion, and advanced acoustic stealth, it signals a new phase in the Pacific undersea competition — and a narrowing gap with US Virginia-class boats.

The Forgotten Weapon: Why Naval Mines May Be the Most Cost-Effective Defense in the Taiwan Strait

A modern naval mine costs less than a car. Clearing one costs millions. In the shallow, confined waters of the Taiwan Strait — where an amphibious fleet must cross predictable corridors to reach just 14 viable landing beaches — this asymmetry becomes strategic.

Death by a Thousand Sorties: China's Gray Zone Campaign Against Taiwan

China's most effective weapon against Taiwan isn't a missile — it's exhaustion. Daily air incursions, coast guard patrols, cyberattacks, and economic coercion are grinding down Taiwan's defenses without firing a shot. The data tells a striking story of escalation.

The Unmanned Revolution: How Drones Are Reshaping the Taiwan Strait Calculus

China is the world's largest military drone producer. Taiwan's semiconductor expertise enables rapid autonomous systems development. From Ukraine's naval drones to AI-enabled swarms, unmanned systems are rewriting the calculus of a 130-kilometer strait crossing — for both sides.

The Undersea Dimension: Why Submarines May Decide the Fate of the Taiwan Strait

Surface fleets are photogenic. But in the shallow, acoustically complex waters around Taiwan, the platforms most likely to determine the outcome are invisible. The undersea balance tells a story the surface numbers miss.

Taiwan's Porcupine Strategy: The Shift to Asymmetric Defense

Taiwan is quietly abandoning the conventional arms race it cannot win. In its place: mobile missile launchers, sea mines, fast attack craft, and a reservist force modeled on Finland and Ukraine. The porcupine's quills may be the most rational investment a defender can make.

The Japan Factor: Why Tokyo Is the Linchpin in Any Taiwan Contingency

Japan's geography, military capabilities, and alliance infrastructure make it the single most decisive external variable in any Taiwan Strait scenario. Without Tokyo, the math doesn't work.

What History Tells Us About Abandoning Strategic Allies

From Czechoslovakia 1938 to Afghanistan 2021, three case studies reveal a consistent pattern: abandoning strategic allies leads to cascading credibility loss, emboldened adversaries, and greater costs down the line.

Inside China's Military Modernization: What the Numbers Tell Us

The PLA Navy is now the world's largest fleet. Missile inventories have tripled. Amphibious capabilities are purpose-built. A data-driven look at China's military modernization trajectory.

The 100-Mile Bottleneck: How One Strait Controls the World Economy

50% of global container traffic transits the Taiwan Strait. The Ever Given blocked the Suez for 6 days and cost $60 billion. A Taiwan Strait disruption would be orders of magnitude worse — and no country can insulate itself.

What Ukraine's Defense Taught the World About Deterrence

Ukraine held against a numerically superior force on the worst defensive terrain in Europe. The lessons — pre-conflict preparation, asymmetric capabilities, international unity — apply directly to other potential flashpoints.

Why Taiwan Matters to the Entire World — Not Just Asia

Taiwan isn't just a geopolitical flashpoint — it's the linchpin of the global economy. From your smartphone to your hospital, here's why Taiwan's freedom affects your daily life.

What Happens to the World If TSMC Stops? A Global Impact Analysis

TSMC makes 90% of the world's advanced chips. Your phone, your car, your hospital equipment — what happens when the fabs go dark? The answer is terrifying.

Why Taiwan Is Nearly Impossible to Invade: A Military Analysis

The Taiwan Strait isn't just water — it's a 130km killing zone. From typhoon seasons to beach geography, here's why military planners consider a cross-strait invasion one of the most difficult amphibious operations ever attempted.

5 Realistic China-Taiwan Invasion Scenarios for 2026

From full-scale amphibious assault to quarantine blockade, we break down the most likely conflict scenarios — and let you simulate each one in our interactive wargame.

The DF-21D "Carrier Killer": Can It Really Sink a US Aircraft Carrier?

China's DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile is designed to keep US carriers 1,500km away from the fight. But does it actually work? We analyze the physics, the countermeasures, and what it means for Taiwan's defense.

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